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High-nickel large cylindrical battery
For more than a year, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been in the limelight, and the once-dominant ternary batteries have fled all the way, and they are extremely embarrassed.
The data shows that in 2021, the installed capacity of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 51.2%; in the first quarter of this year, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate will further increase to 58.2%. In March of this year, in the Catalog of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (the second batch in 2022), the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery models has reached as high as 75%.
Today, the ternary battery, which has been losing ground, seems to be starting to fight back, and the pioneer of the array is the high-nickel large cylindrical battery with the number 4680. There are various indications that the inflection point of the heavy-duty technical route of the large cylinder has arrived.
Recently, Tesla’s first batch of standard battery life version Model Y produced in the Texas factory was delivered, using CTC technology and equipped with 4680 batteries. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the Texas factory will become the largest battery factory in the world. It is expected that by the end of 2022, Tesla's 4680 battery production capacity will reach 100GWh per year, which can meet the needs of 1.3 million electric vehicles.
In addition, Yahua Group recently stated on the interactive platform, "The company is a major supplier of 4680 batteries (materials), and 4680 batteries are expected to grow at a rate of 10 times each year this year and next year." The information it disclosed also reflects Tess Pull 4680 battery is about to burst. Previously, Tesla placed a purchase order for battery-grade lithium hydroxide products totaling US$630 million to US$880 million to Yahua Group.
At present, Tesla's 4680 battery uses high nickel positive electrode + silicon carbon negative electrode material, as well as electrodeless ear technology, the energy density reaches 300Wh/kg, the battery capacity is increased by 5 times, and the output power is increased by 6 times compared with the current plan. Electric vehicles equipped with this battery The range can be increased by 16%, and the cost per kilowatt-hour of the battery can be reduced by 14%. It is particularly worth noting that for a long time, high-nickel batteries have a prominent weakness, that is, they are prone to thermal runaway. The 4680 battery has overcome this difficulty.
"Large cylinders are not prone to thermal runaway, and complement the poor thermal stability of high-nickel ternary." Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the advantage of large-cylinder batteries is their strong ability to cope with thermal runaway, while the disadvantage is that the group efficiency is low. The advantage of high nickel ternary is high energy density; the disadvantage is poor thermal stability, 4680 with high nickel ternary can give full play to the advantages of high energy density and good safety.
Not only that, according to the research data of Huajing Industry, as the follow-up high-nickel process matures and CTP and other technologies begin to be commercialized, the cost reduction curve of high-nickel ternary will be steeper. It is expected that the cost of high-nickel ternary will be less than 2023-2024. The cost of 5/6 series ternary battery will be lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery in 2027-2028, and the final theoretical cost is 10-15% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery.
That is to say, in the not-too-distant future, the "cost moat" that lithium iron phosphate is proud of will be broken by the high nickel ternary army under the leadership of the 4680 large cylinder!
Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yiwei Lithium Energy, believes that 46 series cylindrical batteries (4680 and 4695 batteries) have outstanding safety and economy, and are not deformed, and are expected to become the ultimate technical direction of power batteries.
Lin Jian, chief scientist of BAK Battery, said, "The breakthrough and application of high-nickel ternary and large cylinder technologies are of great significance to the upgrading of the terminal driving experience. An important technical route for parity." He predicts that in 2022, the proportion of global high nickel in the installed capacity of ternary materials is expected to increase to about 50%.
At present, battery companies such as Ningde Times, LG New Energy, Panasonic, Yiwei Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, Lishen, Samsung SDI, and Penghui Energy are actively following up on major battery companies including 4680. Cylindrical battery.
2023 is expected to be the first year of 4680 battery discharge. According to institutional analysis, referring to the replacement rhythm of 21700 to 18650 batteries, it is expected that the installed capacity of 4680 batteries is expected to exceed 20GWh in 2023 and 100GWh in 2024. The application of terminal OEMs is also expected to gradually penetrate from Tesla to high-end BMW, Daimler and other high-end batteries. Electric vehicle manufacturers.
The 4680 large cylindrical battery has accelerated the volume, and the high-nickel technology route has been advancing all the way, and the demand for nickel will also increase exponentially in the future. BenchmarkMineral Intelligence predicts that demand for nickel in power batteries will soar from 139,000 tons in 2020 to 1.4 million tons by 2030.
“From our core energy point of view, we expect the cumulative demand for nickel to be 250% of what it was over the past 30 years over the next few years. Nickel is the standout winner in the decarbonized world. Because whatever metal combination is tested in lithium-ion battery cathodes , nickel has the highest energy density. It is the main force of lithium-ion batteries." The head of global mining giant BHP Billiton said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has more than once expressed concern about nickel supplies because of challenges to sustainable sourcing of this resource. Demand for nickel is set to skyrocket as more and more automakers around the world switch to electric vehicles, and Musk has asked miners to produce more.
In this context, the battle for nickel is imminent. On April 15, CATL announced that it would invest US$5.968 billion in Indonesia to build a super industrial park integrating nickel mining, battery production and battery recycling. Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, said, "The Indonesia project is an important milestone for CATL to expand its business globally."
Then, Yonhap News Agency reported on April 18 that a South Korean consortium led by LG New Energy has also signed an agreement with two Indonesian state-owned enterprises to build a battery industry chain worth about US$9 billion (about 57.3 billion yuan) locally. Project, the sword refers to the increasingly tight nickel resources.
Indonesia is currently the world's largest nickel producer. According to data from the US Geological Survey, as of 2020, Indonesia's nickel resource reserves ranked first in the world, about 21 million tons, accounting for about 22% of the world's total. According to reports, Tesla has also informally approached the Indonesian government and is preparing to invest and build a local factory to ensure the supply of raw materials.
Market participants believe that the competition for nickel between OEMs and battery companies will intensify in the future.
